Urbnlivn - Latest Comments in Condo Expo: Matthew Gardner on Seattle area economics and forecast

Re: Condo Expo: Matthew Gardner on Seattle area economics and forecast

The Tim — Tue, 29 May 2007 17:13:59 -0000

Dan & Ha,

Thanks for the thoughtful comments. I appreciate the feedback.

For what it's worth, I'm not sure there is such a thing as an objective source of information, without any bias. At least I'm open about my biases, instead of trying to pretend I don't have any.

Re: Condo Expo: Matthew Gardner on Seattle area economics and forecast

richard — Tue, 29 May 2007 13:44:07 -0000

jo: "Ive found out that 95% of the people screaming bubble is coming in Seattle, rent rent rent! cant afford something in the area. "

It sounds like it's been a few years since you shopped for a loan. Despite all the news about the subprime collapse, the fact is that just about anyone can still get a loan to purchase a home. As of yet there is no "affordability" problem when it comes to buying a home here or anywhere else - it's a matter of getting a loan with the right terms.

Sure, the bar has raised a bit, but if you've got 650+ credit you can qualify for 100% financing on a mortgage that allows you to pay whatever you can afford for the monthly payment.

The simple truth is that anyone earning $15/hr can buy a place. Homeownership is far from the exclusive club that it was years ago when banks required proof of income, assets and repayment ability.

Re: Condo Expo: Matthew Gardner on Seattle area economics and forecast

chris — Mon, 28 May 2007 16:27:06 -0000

Kevin & Theresa,

Congrats. You made the most of a booming market.... In a similar vein, I bought yahoo! at 8 and sold in Jan 2000. I would not have recommended doubling up at that time.

As far as the Bubble blog, its a great source of info. If nothing else, ignore the poster comments and just read the links. When, say, the director of PIMCO comes out and explains how overvalued the market is, it eyeopening - and that perspective is not getting much coverage in the media otherwise.... I think The Tim is evenhanded but some of the other posters can get a little overzealous. There are some wickedly smart people with a little too much time on their hands who have invested a lot of energy into predicting a bubble, or at least a decline, and so the tone becomes a little confrontational at times. Contrary to Jo's opinion, I think most of the zealous posters have an intellectual/emotional stake in a potential decline as much as a financial one.

Re: Condo Expo: Matthew Gardner on Seattle area economics and forecast

Ha — Sun, 27 May 2007 20:12:57 -0000

Tim:

Putting the tactical "renter vs. buy" comment aside, Dan is spot on with his overarching observations about your blog's content and style; while interesting and mildly entertaining, you fail to provide a safe and objective forum for all sides of the story. I too have trouble really appreciating your work for anything more than another entertaining one-sided rant to sit alongside the rest of the bulls and bears out there. It is a shame because I think a slight re-focus in your energy and tact could much better serve the boader need in our community for awareness, education, transparency, etc. Until then you will continue preaching to an overzealous choir.

Re: Condo Expo: Matthew Gardner on Seattle area economics and forecast

Kevin & Theresa — Sun, 27 May 2007 00:12:21 -0000

We bought our home north of Seattle 2 years ago for 390k. Now similar products and resale are going for over 500k. We kept our old house and made it into a rental yet further north. At the time it was worth 260k. Now similar properties in our old neighborhood are listed for 358k. Velocity is certainly slower, basically off the "I sold my home in 4 days" market, back to the what used to be normal.

We for two, are sure glad we are landlords and not renters!

Re: Condo Expo: Matthew Gardner on Seattle area economics and forecast

Dan Ji — Thu, 24 May 2007 20:59:02 -0000

To be fair, I think there are LOTs of great reasons to rent - especially in this market. ESPECIALLY ESPECIALLY (2x!) if you're looking to buy a place as a speculator/investor... you're better off investing in other investment vehicles.

If you're looking to buy a place to live in and enjoy (and maybe reap some apprecation in the near future)... well, that's another matter altogether.

If I could find a great property at a great price right now, I see no reason not to buy it. They say you make money on the buy, and not the sell... if you plan to stay in a property for a couple of years, it might end up as a great buy.

That said, there's prolly still some money to be made as an investor (shorter term), but I'm going to bet these are harder and harder and harder (3x!) to come by.

I think the above sentiment could be said for people on both sides of the bubble argument, regardless of their ability to afford a property.

Jo, I don't discount your experience, however... there are lots of people who read the popular news at face value and automatically assume there's this huge bubble (or not). I have to believe that people's financial situations make them interpret the written word to filter in those things that they most want to read.

EconE and Tim (even if I don't agree with them 100%) definitely are not in the "the newspaper said so, so it must be true!" camp.

Re: Condo Expo: Matthew Gardner on Seattle area economics and forecast

jo — Thu, 24 May 2007 19:25:43 -0000

I've found out that 95% of the people screaming "bubble is coming in Seattle, rent rent rent!" can't afford something in the area. Convincing themselves of the impending bubble allows them to think they are better off renting them owning when really they have no other choice to rent.

I've seen this with several friends of mine. They scream "bubble bubble" but once they get a new job, or have enough saved up, they go out and buy a place. All of a sudden the bubble talk ceases. Morons.

Similar with EconE and Tim. They're both guys in their mid 20's and can't afford anything, or at least afford what they want. They've missed the boat and are bitter about it. What a better way to make yourself feel content about losing that opportunity than to convince yourself all those who've made a killing so far will lose that money. It's kinda sad.

If I would have listened to the bubble babblers I would have never bought my place a year ago. And just last month the same floor plan with no view sold for 35k more than I paid for mine. :)

Re: Condo Expo: Matthew Gardner on Seattle area economics and forecast

Dan — Thu, 24 May 2007 17:48:54 -0000

Tim,

Your site can be informative, and I'm glad it's up and running. But, I think you can agree that there is a LOT of noise in there - mostly caused by people who try to ruffle the readership community. One thing I find lacking, however, is a balanced voice. I find it to be a somewhat hostile place to exchange opposing ideas...

I wasn't implying that you stated that buyers were idiots. I am under the impression however, that you believe that renting in this market is a most favorable solution. As the proprietor of the blog, I can only judge your opinion by what is written on the blog... and what I don't get is a reasonable set of contrarian views. There tends to be a lot of sarcastic rhetoric, including the often used "Buy now or be priced out forever!". My thought is that this has more to do with the delivery of, and less to do with the message itself.

Personally, I'm undecided as to what to make of the market, and I enjoy reading the Seattle Bubble site as a contrast to this and other similar sites...

Not as a knock to you, I simply felt like Eleua was a good candidate for delivering a message of reason as a contrast to the Matt Gardner piece.

Also, he's subtly hilarious. =)

Re: Condo Expo: Matthew Gardner on Seattle area economics and forecast

The Tim — Thu, 24 May 2007 12:01:08 -0000

The Tim seems to be wrapped up in his own renter vs. idiot buyer mentality.

Dan,

I'm curious what you mean by that. Could you expand on that thought? I'm just trying to provide a useful source of information, analysis, and discussion. I wasn't aware that I thought buyers were idiots, let alone that I am "wrapped up" in it enough to detrimentally affect the conversation.

Please explain?

Re: Condo Expo: Matthew Gardner on Seattle area economics and forecast

EconE — Wed, 23 May 2007 16:43:24 -0000

ditto...Eleua

Re: Condo Expo: Matthew Gardner on Seattle area economics and forecast

Dan — Wed, 23 May 2007 13:41:42 -0000

oh crap, wups! Not Synthetik, I meant Eleua. He's one guy whose message doesn't get lost in the delivery.

Re: Condo Expo: Matthew Gardner on Seattle area economics and forecast

Dan — Wed, 23 May 2007 12:30:48 -0000

"The Tim" seems to be wrapped up in his own renter vs. idiot buyer mentality. I find that "synthetik" seems to be a pretty intelligent, balanced guy over on seattlebubble.

Re: Condo Expo: Matthew Gardner on Seattle area economics and forecast

Matthew — Wed, 23 May 2007 11:33:20 -0000

"The Tim" at

www.seattlebubble.com

Re: Condo Expo: Matthew Gardner on Seattle area economics and forecast

mattgoyer — Wed, 23 May 2007 04:50:46 -0000

I'm curious to know who would provide a good contrarain view to counter the opinions of those who presented this past weekend. Does anyone know of someone?

Re: Condo Expo: Matthew Gardner on Seattle area economics and forecast

Matthew — Mon, 21 May 2007 19:49:50 -0000

It's all about the money. As long as people can obtain financing, they will continue to buy. Once that dries up, all bets are off.

Re: Condo Expo: Matthew Gardner on Seattle area economics and forecast

jo — Mon, 21 May 2007 19:03:18 -0000

Agree with you master

Like Realogistics is going to hire a speaker to come in and give anything BUT a rosy picture of downtown Seattle.

Re: Condo Expo: Matthew Gardner on Seattle area economics and forecast

Master Popular — Mon, 21 May 2007 18:50:21 -0000

Wow, Matthew Gardner had upbeat things to say about Seattle real estate. Thats absolutely no surprise since he has been feeding off the fat of the developers for the past 10 years. Don't get me wrong, I too believe in the puget sound market. Job growth, growth management act, geographical constraints, they all point to a robust market. It just kinda bugs me to hear someone so far intrenched in the pocket of one condominium marketing company spout off like he is unbiased. Just watch who is guarding the hen house. You will see in downtown, it is the same pack of snake oil sales people. Nyhus Communications, Matthew Gardner, REALOGIC, a regular triad of egos. Do you own research don't be fooled into thinking that because you paid them to see their sales event, they are anything more than they are.

Re: Condo Expo: Matthew Gardner on Seattle area economics and forecast

kh — Mon, 21 May 2007 15:49:07 -0000

"Built Green and LEED is a huge thing but expensive to do. Will the developer get their $40/square foot premium back? We cant answer this today because we need more data show where the value is for green developments."

Earlier this year, GGLO released a Post-occupancy evaluation, How much energy are you really saving? (http://www.djc.com/news/en/11186808.html) "GGLO partnered with three long-term property holders to analyze utility cost and usage information for five urban multifamily projects to compare the performance of green buildings with conventional buildings." They also point out that green projects save energy, but there's more for us to learn.

The cost of sustainable buildings may have a higher initial price tag, but like Matthew Gardner mentioned we are finally getting the data to prove to developers that it's a valuable step to build green in the future.